In Syria, the Western powers, including Germany, had begun to support the insurgents soon after the beginning of the uprising against President Bashar al Assad (March 2011). The aim was to replace Assad with a pro-Western governor. In August 2012, the West seemed to be close to its goal: "There are many indications that the final phase of the regime has begun," Gerhard Schindler, the president of the Federal Intelligence Service (BND), was quoted at the time. 1] At that time, the Foundation for Science and Politics (SWP) in Berlin was able to conclude a project extending over several months, in which under the title "The Day After" almost four dozen representatives of the Syrian exiled opposition developed plans for a reorganization of Syria after Assad's hoped-for overthrow in consultation with German government agencies. 2] At the same time, within the framework of a loose association of states ("Friends of Syria") - and in cooperation with the United Arab Emirates - the preparation of plans for the "economic reconstruction" and "development" of Syria also after Assad's fall. 3] At that time, a BND employee boasted quite openly: "We can be proud of the important contribution we make to the overthrow of the Assad regime." 4]
Contrary to what the BND predicted, Assad did not fall in the summer of 2012 and was able to continue to hold in power in Damascus. A turning point brought the beginning of the Russian military operation in Syria at the end of September 2015; from now on, Moscow's armed forces contributed significantly to preventing Assad's fall by jihadist militias in particular. After a short, violent confrontation with Turkey - a Turkish fighter jet shot on the 24th. November 2015 via Syria a Russian military aircraft - and after the reconquest of Aleppo by Syrian troops with Russian support, Moscow managed to determine the course of affairs in Syria in close coordination with Ankara, excluding the Western powers, which until then were still dominant in the Middle East, especially the USA. 5] While Russia continues to support Assad and Turkey has occupied large territories in northern Syria [6], the United States is today limited to a military presence in northeastern Syria. There they have stationed arbitrarily, against the will of the Syrian government and thus illegally stationed a good 900 soldiers; in addition, US special forces operate in the region. The official goal is to fight IS. In reality, the US troops are taking action against pro-Iranian forces and preventing Damascus from accessing an important oil field from which they are reportedly using themselves. 7]
Meanwhile, the states of the Arabian Peninsula are also beginning to change their course towards Syria. If they had initially decisively pushed ahead with the overthrow of Assad from 2011 on the side of the West and, last but not least, also promoted jihadist militias, they are now turning around. The United Arab Emirates had already taken the first steps in this direction at the end of 2018 and began to normalize their diplomatic relations with Damascus - against massive pressure, especially from the United States. While the EU and the USA started the next attempt to overthrow Assad with a brutal tightening of their sanctions against Syria [8], the Emirates stuck to their course. In November 2021, the Emirati Foreign Minister visited Damascus for the first time since the beginning of the Syrian Civil War. In March 2022, Assad visited the United Arab Emirates again for the first time. Washington protested and declared that they were "deeply disappointed," but could not dissuade Abu Dhabi from its course of increasing cooperation with Syria. 9] On the 19th In March, the Emirati ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan now received Assad with a great ceremonial in Abu Dhabi. "Syria has not been with his brothers for too long," he said, "and it's time for it to return to them and to his Arab environment." 10]
After the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia is now also shifting to a policy of cooperation with Syria. Riyadh started approaching Damascus a little later than Abu Dhabi. After the first semi-official visiting contacts at the end of 2019, it was said in May 2021, the head of the Saudi secret service GID (General Intelligence Directorate) had traveled to Damascus to meet his Syrian counterpart there; the talks are also about reducing tensions between the two states. 11] A Syrian government opponent with the best contacts to the GID was quoted in June 2021 with the assessment that in Riyadh it was believed that times had changed and the region was moving "to a new future", "with new geopolitical characteristics". The Syrian Foreign Ministry, on the other hand, said that Riyadh wanted to dampen its conflict with Tehran and signal by relaxing in relation to Damascus that it is no longer important to overthrow the government in Syria supported by Iran. 12] At that time, Saudi Arabia was actually trying to balance out Iran and was already - under Iraqi and Omani mediation - in negotiations with its traditional rival. After the negotiations were stuck in the spring of 2022, China joined as an intermediary.
The People's Republic has succeeded in Saudi Arabia and Iran on the 10th. March to accompany the agreement, to resume their diplomatic relations and to initiate a more far-reaching cooperation, which also includes more intensive economic relations (german-foreign-policy.com reported [13]). At the beginning of the week, it became known that the foreign ministers of both states want to meet shortly - even before the end of the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan (21. April).[ 14] In addition, Saudi Arabia and Syria are now preparing a reopening of their embassies and a restart of their consular services; this should happen soon after the end of Ramadan.[ 15] Beijing has expressed satisfaction about the approaching tendencies in the Middle East, which came about not least thanks to his mediation and usher in a new era in the region - one in which Western dominance, which tried to overturn only ten years ago, but already failed, is disappearing.
More on the topic: The end of US dominance in the Persian Gulf (III).
[1] Syrian army fires to Jordan. zeit.de 11.08.2012.
[2] S. The Day After and The Day After (IV).
[3] S. on the rebel area.
[4] German spy ship cruises off Syria. www.bild.de 19.08.2012.
[5] p. on Aleppo, Mosul and Hegemony and No Power of Order.
[6] S. on The "Turkization" of Northern Syria and The Invasion Power as a Partner.
[7] Lolita C. Baldor: A look at the US military mission in Syria and its dangers. apnews.com 24.03.2023.
[8] S. on the policy of the scorched earth.
[9] Assad: Syria's leader makes historic visit to UAE. bbc.co.uk 19.03.2022.
[10] President of the United Arab Emirates calls for an end to the isolation of Syria. spiegel.de 20.03.2023.
[11], [12] Matthew Ayton: 'Times have changed': Saudi Arabia-Syria in rapprochement talks. aljazeera.com 08.06.2021.
[13] p. on the end of US dominance in the Persian Gulf (III).
[14] Saudi, Iran foreign ministers to meet during Ramadan. aljazeera.com 27.03.2023.
[15] Saudi Arabia and Syria ‘in talks to restore ties’. aljazeera.com 24.03.2023.